USD/CAD: Trudeau News Wipes Out CAD Gains as Key Employment Data Looms

10.01.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.4290-1.4490

Euro 1.4740-1.4950

Sterling 1.7630-1.7830

WTI Oil (opening level) $76.22

The CAD is opening at 1.4407 ( 0.6941)

The USD/CAD pair started the week with the CAD gaining 0.5% on the news that Trudeau was stepping down. But that gain has pretty much been wiped out.

Today we have Canadian and USA employment reports.

I must point out to you that I see these type of reports affect the currency markets about 25% of the time (where interest rate moves are usually 50% of the time). {the other 25% of the time, I have no clue what is pushing the market around}

Canada's economy may not be in great shape, but the labour market remains strong. And it is anticipated that we will have another positive number today. The only disconnect of note is the rising unemployment rate, but that is explained away by the growing labour market which has been boosted by high immigration levels.

In the USA, nonfarm payrolls report is coming out this morning. The USA labour market has been cooling of late (think all of those Democrats who worked on Harris campaign will not be hired back by the Trump team). An unexpected number could have a strong impact on the direction of USD

USD/CAD Technical

· USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4411. Above, there is resistance at 1.4427.

· 1.4388 and 1.4372 are the next support levels

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