Markets Hold Breath, CAD Stays in Tight Range

12.02.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.4200-1.4400

Euro 1.4730-1.4960

Sterling 1.7710-1.7930

WTI Oil (opening level) $72.46

The CAD is opening at 1.4300 ( 0.6993 )

CAD is drifting in the same small range the last few days. Its feel like the market is holding its breath - waiting for the tariff bomb to drop.

Headlines

Fed Chair Powell made it clear in testimony before a Senate Panel yesterday that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates further. There was little reaction to the news as the market continues to assess that the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate only once more by the September FOMC this year.

Tesla dropped more than 6%, seemingly on the drumbeat of recent news of poor sales of its cars, especially in Europe after last week it was reported that sales in Germany had fallen 59.5% in January. The stock is down over 12% this week and 30% from its December high.

Intel shares rose sharply yesterday, rising more than 6% after US Vice President JD Vance made strong comments in support of US semiconductor design and manufacturing.

Key Points

· Equities: Powell holds rates steady; CPI in focus; DAX & STOXX hit records; HK tech rallies; Alibaba AI deal boosts sentiment

· Volatility: VIX 16.02 (+1.33%); CPI to set market tone; short-term volatility jumps

· Digital Assets: Bitcoin flat; XRP approaches breakout; Solana ETF filings fuel speculation; crypto stocks slump.

· Currencies: JPY crosses extend vicious reversal overnight as JPY sells off ahead of US CPI today

· Commodities: Gold reverses from strong new all-time highs yesterday

· Fixed Income: US yield curve bear steepens taking US 10yr benchmark back above key 4.50%

· Macro events: US January CPI, US Fed Chair Powell testimony before House Panel, US 10-year Treasury Note Auction

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