Tariff Turbulence: Markets Surge on Trump’s Pause, Fed Flags Inflation Risks

10.04.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3970-1.4200

Euro 1.5460-1.5690

Sterling 1.8070-1.8300

WTI Oil (opening level) $60.39

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4075 ( 0.7104 )

Headlines

· China retaliated against the latest Trump administration tariffs against it by adding 50% to its tariffs on all US imports, with the total tariff now set at 84%.

· Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs that hit dozens of trade partners on Wednesday, while raising duties on China to 125%, a decision Trump said was “based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets”. Trump claimed his decision to pause the tariffs was based on the increasingly volatile bond market. Trump suggested deals are possible with China and the EU, emphasized tariff flexibility, and considered exemptions for some US companies, while talking up the ‘beautiful’ bond market.

· Fed minutes from March 2025 indicate policymakers expect tariffs to raise inflation, with uncertainty about the impact's extent and duration. Most officials see inflation pressures as potentially persistent, with inflation risks tilted upwards and employment risks downwards.

Key Points

· Equities: Tariff pause sparks historic gains; tech stocks lead; caution on US-China tensions

· Volatility: VIX posts record decline; short-term uncertainty persists

· Digital Assets: Crypto rebounds strongly; institutional optimism grows; ETF approvals boost sentiment

· Currencies: USD spiked higher versus safe haven currencies, lower against pro-cyclical currencies on Trump’s tariff delay, but reaction reversing overnight.

· Fixed Income: US short dated yields spike higher as partial Trump tariff pause seen less likely to bring Fed rate cuts. Long US treasury yields reversed from highs.

· Commodities: Pro-cyclical rebound led by copper and gas. Surging gold sends warning signal

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