Alaska Talks in Focus as Economic Picture Shifts

15.08.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3670-1.3920

Euro 1.6000-1.6250

Sterling 1.8590-1.8840

WTI Oil (opening level) $70.25

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3793 ( 0.7250 )

USD/CAD’s drift back from its peak in the low 1.38s this week is not all that persuasive from a technical point of view—the USD could be staking out a minor consolidation ahead of renewed gains—but USD losses do reinforce the idea of fairly stiff short-term resistance in the 1.3800/20 range following last week’s sharp fall in the USD from the 1.3880 area. USD/CAD support is 1.3740/50 and 1.3720.

Headlines

· Core and headline PPI rose 0.9% month-over-month compared to the anticipated 0.2%. Over three-quarters of this increase in producer prices was linked to the index for final demand services (+1.1%), with more than half attributable to margins for final demand trade services, which increased by 2%.

· Japan growth beat forecasts, boosting rate-hike case. GDP grew by 0.3% QoQ in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations of 0.1%, due to robust private consumption and strong business investment. Despite high costs, consumption rose by 0.2%, while business investment surged 1.3%.

· russian President vladimir putin commended the US for its "energetic and sincere efforts" to halt the war in Ukraine. He also showed openness to initiating a new arms control treaty, suggesting such a pact could "establish long-term peace" between the US and russia. Meanwhile, Trump characterized the forthcoming summit as an exploratory meeting, predicting "a 25% chance" it might "not succeed."

· China's economy slowed across the board in July suggesting an impact from Beijing's crackdown to curb overcapacity in businesses from steel to solar and EVs, extreme weather, and spillovers from Donald Trump's tariffs. Production at factories and mines rose at the slowest rate since November and expanded a worse-than-forecast 5.7% YoY, while retail sales grew 3.7% YoY, the least this year. Expansion in fixed-asset investment in the first seven months of the year decelerated to 1.6%, as a contraction in the real estate sector deepened.

Key Points

· Equities: S&P at record while Russell cools; Europe higher; Asia mixed; UK at record

· Volatility: VIX near 15 with upward curve; options imply ~0.9% SPX daily move

· Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound on PPI beat

· Digital Assets: BTC and ETH slip; ETH spot ETFs draw inflows

· Currencies: USDJPY lower on Japan growth beat, steady week for the dollar overall

· Commodities: Agriculture sector show strength in a week of energy and precious metal weakness

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