Cautious Trading Before Powell’s Remarks

21.08.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3750-1.4000

Euro 1.6040-1.6290

Sterling 1.8570-1.8820

WTI Oil (opening level) $63.04

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3887 ( 0.7200 )

It all looks fairly quiet on the FX front this morning as markets await comments from Fed Chair Powell. The USD is narrowly mixed against the majors but minor losses versus the EUR and GBP leaves the US Dollar Index racking a little lower on the session and looking prone to more softness,

Headlines

· Fed July minutes showed most officials favoured holding rates highlighting the risk to inflation as outweighing concerns over the labor market as tariffs fuelled a growing a divide. Investors now look to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday for rate cut signals.

· Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signalled her intention to remain at the central bank, saying “I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” from Trump over allegations of mortgage fraud.

· Australia’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in August, the fastest expansion in nearly three years. Output and new orders surged, driven by stronger demand and broader customer bases. Despite rising orders, employment dipped slightly. Input costs rose, though inflation eased.

· Eurozone inflation held steady at 2% in July, matching the ECB’s target for a second straight month and slightly exceeding market expectations of 1.9%.

Key Points

· Equities: U.S. slipped on tech and mixed retail; Europe mixed as staples outperformed and industrials lagged; Asia firmer in Hong Kong but weaker in Japan; UK hit a record on consumer strength

· Volatility: VIX 15.69, VIX1D 10.90, Sep VIX future 18.39; curve in contango; options imply a 63.2-point SPX move, or 1.0%

· Digital Assets: BTC $114,280 (+1.3%), ETH $4,335 (+6.4%) on the 00:00 UTC cut

· Fixed Income: Weak JGB market overnight contrasts with rallies elsewhere yesterday.

· Currencies: Sterling weaker. JPY rebound eases as USD firms broadly.

· Commodities: Crude firmer on US stockpile drop.

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