Fed Minutes in Focus as USD Extends Six-Day Rally Against CAD Despite Cooling Canadian Inflation

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3520-1.3770

Euro                1.6040-1.6290

Sterling           1.8400-1.8650

WTI Oil (opening level) $64.00

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3645 ( 0.7329 )

USD appreciates for the sixth consecutive day against the CAD, trading now around1.3650 , but remains below the early February highs, in the area of 1.3720, which keeps the broader bearish trend in play.

USD has been trading moderately higher across the board this week, although market volatility remained subdued, with most Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holidays, and investors awaiting key US economic releases due in the second half of the week.

Today, the focus will be on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, which are expected to highlight a diverging monetary policy committee. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted those divergences, pointing to the possibility of “several rate cuts in 2026” while the bank projects only a quarter-point cut this year.

The highlights of the week, however, will be the US Q4 Gross Domestic Product and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index figures, both due on Friday.

In Canada, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday revealed that inflation moderated in January, with the yearly CPI ticking down to 2.3% from 2.4% in the previous month, and monthly inflation stalling against expectations of a 0.1% rise. These figures cement hopes of a rate cut in July, although the impact on the Loonie was marginal.

Headlines

·    ECB President Christine Lagarde will leave before the end of her eight-year term, according to the FT, apparently wanting to do so before the French presidential election next year as she would like French president Macron and German chancellor Merz to have the opportunity to appoint her successor. Her term was originally scheduled to end October 31, 2027.

·    New Zealand’s RBNZ left rates unchanged as widely expected, but failed to adjust forecasts for the policy path as high as the market anticipated, only forecasting about a 50% chance of a rate hike this calendar year. This saw short NZ rates sharply lower and the New Zealand dollar weaker as well.

·    Japan is set to invest USD 36 billion in US critical minerals and energy facilities, including USD 33 billion in an Ohio gas processing plant as the first tranche in a promised USD 550 billion investment pledge under the terms of the US-Japan trade deal.

·    Japanese exports climbed 16.8% year on year in January, sharply beating market expectations and growing at their fastest rate since November 2022 as shipments to Asia and Western Europe surged

·    The US and Iran made progress in nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, with Tehran’s negotiators scheduled to return with a new proposal in two weeks, a cautiously upbeat assessment that suggests the chances of an imminent military clash are low.

Key Points

·    Equities: US ended flat on AI nerves, Europe rose on bank and healthcare gains, Asia climbed in thin Lunar New Year trading.

·    Volatility: VIX steady, short-term gauge cools, Fed minutes and core PCE in focus

·    Digital Assets: Consolidation, macro-driven tone, IBIT outflow vs ETHA inflow

·    Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound from key support.

·    Currencies: GBP weak on soft employment data, awaits UK CPI this morning. NZD weak on dovish RBNZ.

·    Commodities: Gold and silver rebound after two-day drop; crude adopts wait-and-see stance amid US–Iran standoff