Oil Surges as Hormuz Tensions Escalate, Supporting the Canadian Dollar

05.03.2026

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3510-1.3760

Euro 1.5700-1.5950

Sterling 1.8080-1.8300

WTI Oil (opening level) $77.09

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3634 ( 0.7334 )

The escalating US-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz boost crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked CAD. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the CAD.

Headlines

A US submarine allegedly sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, the first such strike since WWII. The US-Israeli campaign is in its sixth day, worrying markets over a prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked after Iran's IRGC threats. President Trump offered insurance and escorts for Gulf vessels, while Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested market-stabilizing measures.
One Chinese bulk carrier ship designed to transport crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz signaling “China Owner” as it hugged the Omani coastline through the strait.
The US ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February, the strongest reading since mid-2022 and beating expectations of 53.5. New orders surged to 58.6 and Employment improved to 51.8, while supplier deliveries slowed at 53.9. The Prices Index fell to 63 vs. 68.3 expected and 66.6 in January, indicating lower cost pressures.
US private businesses added 63,000 jobs in February, led by education and health services with 58,000. Small businesses created 60,000 jobs, while medium-sized firms cut 7,000. Job-stayers' pay growth held at 4.5%; for job-changers, it slowed to 6.3%.
Euro Area producer prices rose 0.7% in January 2026, reversing December's 0.3% drop and exceeding the 0.2% forecast. Energy prices and gains in intermediate, durable consumer, and capital goods drove the increase, while non-durable goods prices fell 0.2%. Annually, prices decreased by 2.1%.

Key Points

Equities: U.S. tech rebound and Europe recovery lifted sentiment, while Asia stayed fragile after Korea’s record slide.
Volatility: Iran conflict watch, oil-driven inflation risk, volatility easing but elevated, tail-risk hedging persists
Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady near $72k, ethereum around $2.1k, crypto equities surge, policy optimism boosts sentiment
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebounding, US 10-year yield at new three-week high
Currencies: US dollar and Japanese yen firm versus other major currencies
Commodities: Crude oil pri, Gold and silver steady.

Comment (1)

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