US–Iran tensions escalate despite ongoing peace talks, driving oil higher and reshaping global market dynamics

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3720-1.3970

Euro                1.5840-1.6090

Sterling           1.8340-1.8590

WTI Oil (opening level) $94.18

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3847 ( 0.7222 )

Gold is trading near USD 4,400 after failing at key technical resistance around USD 4,600 on Wednesday, as crude oil extends gains on renewed supply risks and war concerns.

The recent price action highlights how gold, during a supply-driven macro shock, has shifted into a source of liquidity—behaving more like a risk asset and moving in line with broader market stress, thereby failing to provide traditional safe-haven support. On the downside, support is seen at 4,407 and USD 4,348, while the 200-day moving average at USD 4,108 remains the key line in the sand.

Headlines

• The White House says peace talks with Iran are ongoing, even as it orders additional troops to the region, fuelling fears of a potential ground invasion. Tehran has rejected US overtures and instead outlined its own conditions for ending the conflict, including guarantees that the US and Israel will not resume attacks, reparations for war damages, and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest since Q1 2021. The goods deficit decreased, and the primary income balance turned to a $23.9 billion surplus. The services surplus and secondary income deficit slightly decreased. The deficit was 2.4% of GDP, down from 3.1% in Q3.
• US import prices rose 1.3% in February 2026, the highest since March 2022. Fuel prices increased 3.8%, with petroleum up 2.5% and natural gas jumping 24.7%. Nonfuel imports rose 1.1%. Annually, import prices saw the largest gain since February 2025.
• UK's annual inflation remained at 3% in February 2026. Clothing prices rose 0.9%, while housing and utilities increased at 4.6%. Inflation slowed for transport, food, recreation, and restaurants. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, recovering from January's fall. Core inflation increased to 3.2%.

Key Points

• Equities: Stocks rose in the US, climbed harder in Europe, and rallied across Asia as ceasefire hopes briefly cooled oil fears.
• Volatility: VIX easing, geopolitics dominant, oil-inflation link
• Digital Assets: Crypto softer, institutional demand cautious
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields firm across the curve; short-dated JGBs hit multi-decade highs on rate hike speculation
• Currencies: USDJPY on intervention watch near 160
• Commodities: Oil rise, gold slumps as war escalation and disruption risks dominate