Calm Before the Next Market Breakout

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.4090-1.4340

Euro                1.6110-1.6360

Sterling           1.8840-1.9090

WTI Oil (opening level) $68.28

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4218 ( 0.7033 )

USD/CAD pair remains confined within a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so. Against the backdrop of a strong rally from the late April swing low, the price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase before the next leg up. Moreover, the USD/CAD pair holds comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing a constructive underlying trend.

The upside pressure remains but lacks a strong impulsive driver for now. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 1.4245-1.4250 region, or the highest since April 2025, before positioning for any further gains.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 1.4217 area as an immediate intraday pivot, with the 100-period SMA near 1.4142 providing a more substantial structural floor if a deeper pullback unfolds. As long as USD/CAD holds above this moving average, dips are likely to be viewed as corrective within the broader uptrend, while a clear break below it would be needed to undermine the current positive technical tone on the four-hour chart.

Headlines

• The UK Composite PMI fell to 49.3 in June 2026 from 49.7, marking a second month of contraction and missing expectations of 50.6. Services shrank (48.8) while manufacturing grew (52.5). Sales posted their steepest drop since April 2025, and employment declined further. Input and output price inflation eased, and business confidence improved.
• The Eurozone Services PMI rose to 49.4 in June 2026 from 47.7, signaling the mildest downturn since the recent energy shock. New business fell slightly faster, but firms accelerated backlog clearance and returned to hiring amid improved sentiment as energy and borrowing costs eased. Input cost inflation declined for the first time since October.
• In other news, England and Norway will meet in the World Cup quarterfinals in Miami Gardens on Saturday. England advanced after a dramatic 3-2 win over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca, while the rowing Norwegians sent Brazil packing with a controlled 2-1 victory in New York. Elsewhere, FIFA sparked fresh controversy after clearing red-carded US star striker Folarin Balogun to face Belgium in Seattle following a phone call from President Donald Trump to FIFA President Gianni Infantino.

Key Points

• Equities: US markets were closed, Europe hit records, Asia rebounded as chips recovered from a sharp sell-off.
• Volatility: Post holiday tech selloff persists, vol curve pricing medium term uncertainty ahead of FOMC minutes and earnings season
• Digital Assets: Crypto steadier than equities overnight, miners slump sharply while Bitcoin ETF outflow streak ends
• Commodities: Gold trades softer, oil holds losses as grains jump on heatwave concerns
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields drift lower after inflation comments and weak jobs report
• Currencies: Broad albeit limited USD strength seen, especially against the yen