Rising Oil Prices and Middle East Tensions Set the Tone for Global Markets

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.4050-1.4300

Euro                1.6140-1.6390

Sterling           1.8890-1.9140

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4170 ( 0.7057 )

USD traded generally firmer overnight as US military strikes on Iran, including moves to block Iranian oil exports, pushed oil prices sharply higher, reignited inflation concerns, and lifted US Treasury yields. EURUSD slipped but held above 1.1400 as geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz undermined the euro’s bullish case, while GBPUSD eased to 1.3350, breaking a multi-session uptrend amid a risk-off tone.

Headlines

• Oil prices rose again as US–Iran tensions escalated after the US launched new airstrikes on Iranian weapon sites, air defenses, and coastal targets in response to attacks on three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi tanker, near the Strait of Hormuz, while the Treasury revoked Iran’s oil export waiver, marking the sharpest US–Iran escalation since their memorandum of understanding less than three weeks ago.
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its Q2 US GDP growth estimate up to 1.36% from 1.19% previously, still below Bloomberg consensus of 2.47%. This following the May trade data release showed a 42.2% month-on-month rise in the deficit to $77.6 billion, the largest since March 2025, as exports fell 3.2% and imports rose 3.3%
• The New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7% in June and three-year expectations to 3.3%, while the five-year outlook stayed at 3.0%. Gas price expectations fell to 1.5%. Job security perceptions improved, households felt financially better off than a year ago but more expect tighter credit ahead.

Key Points

• Equities: US and Europe fell on chip weakness, Asia stayed volatile as Korea sold off and oil worries returned.
• Volatility: US strikes on Iran lifted oil and revived geopolitical risk, FOMC minutes ahead
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities and miners retreated with tech while spot eased overnight on the geopolitical risk-off
• Commodities: Oil jumps as ceasefire is tested; gold holds despite clouded inflation and rate outlook
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields moved higher along the curve
• Currencies: Modest USD gain despite fresh Middle East turmoil