US Dollar dips as february inflation surges: impact on interest rate expectations and currency markets

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3450-1.3550

Euro                1.4725-1.4825

Sterling           1.7250-1.7350

WTI Oil (opening level) $78.69

The US Dollar index is marginally weaker this morning as it gave back some of its gains from yesterday afternoon after the US February inflation rate came in slightly higher than expected. The rate of inflation in the US jumped slightly to 3.2% (up from 3.1%) and the Core rate jumped to 3.8% (up from 3.7%) which helped push the Dollar higher throughout the day. I think the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in June but another reading like this next month may bring that into question. We do get the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week so we will get more information on interest rates when they announce.

Like most currencies the Canadian Dollar traded weaker against the US Dollar yesterday with USD.CAD reaching a high above 1.3520 (07396) before recovering a little this morning to open the day near 1.3485 (0.7416). The Loonie should once again continue to range trade until we get the next round of data on the economy.

Nothing on the calendar for today, stocks were all higher yesterday as the S&P index reached another record high and they are once again pointing higher this morning so the US Dollar may give back some gains early on.