US Dollar dips ahead of crucial data; Canadian economy shows signs of strain.

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3650-1.3750

Euro                 1.4600-1.4700

Sterling            1.7050-1.7150

WTI Oil (opening level) $82.93

The US Dollar index is marginally weaker as the market gets set for important US data including the latest look at the US economy in the form of the GDP report for the first quarter, it is expected that the economy grew at a rate of 2.5% which would be down from the previous quarter of 3.4%. I am convinced that it would take a big drop in growth for the US Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates sooner than later so even though growth is dropping we may not see an interest rate cut in the near future. The Fed will also get a look at US inflation today in the form of the PCE (Personal Consumer Expenditures) Prices and it is expected to show that inflation ticked up in the last quarter, either way we should see lots of volatility today.

The Canadian Dollar picked up a little strength overnight despite a poor reading in the Retail Sales report yesterday. The Canadian economy continues to decline as sales were flat in March which followed on from a 0.1% drop the previous month. Once again we see conditions being laid out for a Bank of Canada rate cut before the Fed moves which will help push the Loonie lower.

After a small drop yesterday stocks are poised for big drop on the opening as tech stock losses start to weigh on the overall market. Look for some extra volatility this morning and the US Dollar trading a little stronger if the GDP report is weaker than expected.